MARKETS ARE PRICING PEACE, BUT THE FED IS PRICING HIGHER RATES Traders were bracing for a wider conflict. Now, they’re betting the worst is behind us. Oil has completely erased its war-driven rally. Politicians are debating how much military involvement…
MARKETS ARE GETTING HIT HARD TODAY Not because one thing broke but because several major narratives are starting to weaken at the same time. The biggest one remains the U.S.-Iran peace process. Just days ago, investors were pricing a best-case…
THE US-IRAN DEAL SURVIVED ITS FIRST TEST Just days ago, markets were preparing for another escalation in the Middle East. Today, the narrative looks very different. The first round of U.S.-Iran negotiations in Switzerland concluded with what officials described as…
THE CALM IS OVER AND UNCERTAINTY IS BACK Just days ago, markets were celebrating what looked like a breakthrough in U.S.-Iran relations. Today, that optimism is being tested. The Geneva meeting that was supposed to move the peace process forward…
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FROM RATE CUTS TO RATE HIKES Markets came into yesterday’s FOMC expecting a routine rate hold. Instead, they got one of the most hawkish Fed meetings in years. The Fed left rates unchanged for a fourth straight meeting, but the…
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FOMC DAY: DON’T JUST WATCH THE RATE DECISION The Federal Reserve announces its latest policy decision today but with markets pricing a 99.4% chance of no rate change, the decision itself is unlikely to surprise anyone. The real focus will…
THE DEAL ISN’T SIGNED YET MARKETS ARE ALREADY ACTING LIKE IT IS Markets are increasingly pricing a successful outcome to the ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations, with reports suggesting a formal agreement could be signed on June 19 in Geneva. However, while…
