We often hear that if you had invested just one dollar in Bitcoin back in 2010, you’d likely be a millionaire today. However, another part of the story is that Bitcoin has also experienced periods of significant bear markets. The key takeaway is that these price rises and falls are part of the natural market cycle.
Like any market, Bitcoin and the crypto market have recurring price cycles that help us analyze potential future market movements. In Bitcoin, these price cycles are referred to as Bitcoin Cycles.
Bitcoin Cycles
Historically, Bitcoin’s price has moved in cycles following a consistent pattern. These cycles are typically marked by a key event: the Bitcoin Halving.
When a halving occurs, the number of new Bitcoins created decreases because miners’ fixed rewards are cut in half. This means that, from a supply and demand perspective, the supply of Bitcoins entering the market decreases after each halving.
As a result, when this reduced BTC supply is coupled with an increase in demand—often driven by the halving’s significance to investors—it creates a powerful bullish catalyst for the market. Historically, this is when each Bitcoin cycle has begun.
What’s the Key for Us?
Historically, the periods following a halving hold the key, as these mark the beginning of the expansion phase, which has historically driven Bitcoin’s price to new all-time highs.
However, due to the nature of market cycles, an expansion phase is often followed by a contraction phase, where the price significantly corrects, bottoms out, stabilizes, and then begins a new phase to restart the cycle.
A Historical Perspective on Bitcoin Cycles
- First Bitcoin Cycle (2012–2016): Bitcoin rose from $12 to over $1,000 in 364 days following the halving.
- Second Bitcoin Cycle (2016–2020): Bitcoin rose from $700 to nearly $20,000 in 525 days following the halving.
- Third Bitcoin Cycle (2020–2024): Bitcoin rose from $9,000 to almost $70,000 in 546 days following the halving.
Fourth Bitcoin Cycle (2024–2028)
In all previous cases, we’ve seen the same results. Bitcoin has experienced strong upward movements shortly after a halving, reaching new all-time highs, followed by corrections and a period of stability that restarts the cycle.
Now, you can see how Bitcoin’s price cycles throughout its history have been shaped by the halving events. Following Bitcoin’s fourth halving in April 2024, we can anticipate that the fourth Bitcoin Cycle is already taking shape.